Since last few weeks, the debate has got heated up in the media and political circles about the prime ministerial candidates of UPA and NDA. Both parties are not coming out daringly in open to name any particular candidate. In absence of parties doing the honors, the media itself has declared 2014 as a Modi v/s Rahul election.
However, there are various facets to this battle of Modi v/s Rahul. First of all they cannot be compared. One is an accomplished leader with proven track record of development while the other is a young politician with no tangible credentials. However, Modi has a 2002 stigma attached to him which pulls down his acceptance among allies while there is no opposition to Rahul for occupying the post.
Let us analyze why the parties are not declaring their prime ministerial candidates.
NDA
In BJP, there is an internal power struggle which was largely responsible for ouster of Nitin Gadkari. More damage was done to him by insiders than outsiders in revealing the contentious matters relating to his industries and dealings. However, that is not an excuse to protect or safeguard a person. If someone has done a mistake, then he should pay for it.
The problem for BJP does not stop there. Rajnath Singh does not have any power to decide on important matters including prime ministerial candidate. He is currently just barely managing the party affairs trying hard not to antagonize any section within the party, and openly praising Modi.
LK Advani, who had long cherished but recently given up his ambition to become a prime minister, has once again rekindled hopes amidst the daily attack on Modi from NDA allies. JD (U) has also added boost to his ambitions by mentioning that Advani is more acceptable to them than Modi. He will surely throw in his hat at an appropriate time. And his expectation would be that, at that time, whoever is opposed to Modi will automatically drift towards him.
Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitly are not so ambitious to aim for that position as yet, because they know their limitations. While Sushma gets some feelers from Shiv Sena intermittently about their support for her candidature, she knows that it is more because of their antipathy towards Modi than any kind of love for her. And Arun Jaitly shall be bidding his time and building his image for the 2019 elections. He is currently an under rated leader because of lack of any mass base for him.
One thing common for all BJP leaders is that they are all worried in their minds about Modi’s autocratic functioning style. Now whether this is an image created or he truly works that way is still unknown, but this one factor has prevented the party from naming him as yet for the position. Modi needs to take some immediate steps to remove such image from minds of all other senior leaders for developing a trust between them.
So, in a nutshell, the BJP leaders and allies are really not worried about his ‘communal past’. They are fully aware of his ‘progressive and developmental present’. They are only worried that once he becomes Prime minister, he may take unanimous decisions like once Indira Gandhi did without consulting others. This is their real worry.
UPA
The problems of UPA are entirely different.
Rahul Gandhi has two options currently in front of him. One of them is to ‘accept’ the ‘overwhelming request’ from party workers to become prime minister and be vulnerable for onslaught from opposition on his inadequate knowledge and capabilities, or ‘sacrifice’ the post to someone else and get a ‘saintly’ image like his mother and enjoy the power. The problem is, it is difficult to know whether he understands these two options in front of him along with the risk – benefit analysis associated with each of the option. His limited interaction in public domain so far does not give any indication about the depth of his cognizance of these matters.
Manmohan Singh is in the news lately for uttering (finally..!) few words about his possible continuation in office for a third term. These statements do not have any weightage, since he is not the decision maker in the first place. Moreover, Congress would try not to make him the mascot of the party as his image has been tarnished beyond repair in the last couple of years. He is the biggest casualty of Congress, who is expiating for the sins of all his ministers. He is also on the wrong side of his age for staking any claim for the third term.
In absence of these big two candidates, the only third possible choice is Chidambaram who is consciously and meticulously building up his image for last few months though reforms and remaining silent on controversial issues. He was mightily pleased when his name sprang up in foreign media some time back, as a possible prime ministerial candidate from UPA in 2014.
The problems of Congress start from here. All the second level leaders in Congress like Salman Khurshid, Anthony, Kapil Sibbal, etc have no issues in bowing down to any Gandhi, but they would have stiff resistance to accept any one among themselves as their leaders. This is the most difficult challenge in Congress. The issue gets compounded because its allies also will not accept any of these second rung leaders as their prime ministerial candidates, because, they themselves are in the fray this time. Everyone knows that Mulayam, Sharad Pawar and Mayawati had openly stated their ambitions at some time or other in recent past.
Third, Fourth, and nth front
The parties outside Congress and BJP are at their popular best in today’s situation. Each one of them is holding on to their fort strongly, like kings in pre-independent India. And funnily enough, in UP and Tamil Nadu, even if the popularity of current leaders fades, there is an equally strong opponent who is again a local chieftain. So, both Congress and BJP can never aspire to rule these two states on their own for several years to come.
The fronts formed by these outfits shall be inherently weak in nature, as they would be formed purely out of opportunism and compromises, just to share power at centre. Unfortunately, all such experiments in India earlier have failed to provide a stable government.
Expect the unexpected
The entertainment is not going to stop till the prime ministerial candidate is announced. The saga continues even after the elections till post poll formation is crystallized. We can expect some surprises to see who is ready to go with whom, just to share power or keep someone out of power. Don’t be surprised to see Congress and BJP coming together to keep the local leaders out of power, as some TV channels had predicted recently that the number of these parties together may reach the halfway mark. Some strange indications we can already see, like Mulayam suddenly starts praising Sangh founder and Advani, Modi praises Mamta in Kolkata, Nitish praises Advani, Mamata and Mulayam have broken up and patched up three times in last 6 months etc.
These elections shall be fought by every party against the opponent as well as against the rivals within the party. A very treacherous and dangerous game is on the cards where no one will be sure as to who is doing what…! It is a perfect recipe for Abbas Mustan if they ever plan to make a political thriller.
This is also the unfortunate hour in Indian politics when the choice of prime ministerial candidates is going to be more by adjustments and compromises rather than merits and capabilities.