AAP has set new benchmarks in the history
of India as far as the winning percentage in assembly elections are concerned.
By any standards, this is an unprecedented victory and shall always figure in
the top 5 list of victory margins for decades to come. The AAP cadre deserves
to be complimented for their sustained efforts during the last few months for
campaigning for their candidates.
With this verdict, the Modi juggernaut
has symbolically come to a halt. The BJP may console themselves by saying that
this was a referendum on Kejriwal and not on Modi government, but even a child
will say that this is not entirely true. BJP faced its first big challenge post
the general elections last year and they lost the contest very badly.
Going ahead, the AAP will have unlimited
power as the people’s mandate has been completely in their favor. However, will
AAP live up to the people’s expectations? Can the Kejriwal government fulfill
all its poll promises? Can Kejriwal bring the Moon, which he has promised, to
the Aam Admi of Delhi during the campaigning?
Well, the road ahead for Kejriwal is not
very easy. He has a challenge ahead of him, which is much bigger that what
meets the eyes. Let us analyze the threats faced by Kejriwal at this moment of
time, and see whether he can survive a full term of five years or again
sacrifice his powerful seat, to satiate his inner need of doing dharnas and
agitations.
Threat #1: No opposition
Kejriwal has achieved something, which
neither he nor any of his ardent supporter might have dreamt of. He does not
have an opposition in the assembly. He can virtually pass any bill, any
resolution, any act without having to bother about anything. In fact, there
would be no meaningful discussions in the assembly at all. The ruling party
legislatures are stretching from the right side of the speaker to the extreme
left side, a place reserved for the opposition party legislatures. How much
debate can be held with the three members of BJP, who will appear and behave
more like invitees to a marriage function that posing any serious challenge to
the government?
This is not good omen for democracy,
since the government tends to become complacent about its actions and likely to
lose focus very soon.
Threat #2: Old habits die hard
Kejriwal has been an expert agitator
while is efficiency as an administrator is yet to be tested. He has already
squandered one precious chance last year. During his infamous rule for 49 days,
he has initiated and participated in several agitations and dharnas, some of them
on the roads leading to north block. He had not only threatened to disrupt the
republic day parade, but had also openly incited the policemen to join the
agitation. He also uttered those words ‘Yes, I am an Anarchist.’
If he indulges in any of these things
now, he might be in trouble again. Moreover, this time, he has no excuse. The
people have given him an enviable mandate. He has to govern, not agitate.
Threat #3: Difficult promises
Kejriwal has made several rosy promises
to the people of Delhi. He may not find it easy to deliver on these promises.
For example, if he is going to reduce the electricity and water bills for the
people, and collect the money from people indirectly by way of additional taxes
and duties, then this may not work for long. The electricity and water
authorities cannot operate on losses. The government cannot grant subsidies to
the people, unless they know where the money is going to come from, to cover
the loss in revenue.
Similarly, roads cannot be built without
collecting additional money from the public.
Threat #4: High expectations on fast
results
The mandate got by Kejriwal is
unrealistic by any standards. People do not even dare to dream what he has
achieved. Naturally, the expectations are running high and people expect the
result of good governance to be reflected in their daily lives from day one.
Every day brings more pressure to perform and any delay is looked upon with
suspicion about the capabilities to bring about the changes. Unfortunately, he
has many things in his agenda like bringing Delhi police under the Delhi
government, statehood for Delhi, audits of power companies etc., which are not
easy tasks. These changes require prolonged deliberations with different
stakeholders, patient discussions, compromises and adjustments from one’s
original stand etc. Unfortunately, the AAP leadership has not demonstrated so
far any of these qualities while dealing with such issues. They instantly go on
offensive and threaten a dharna. This only derails the process and brings down
the trust levels between various parties.
Threat #5: Internal contradictions
By far, this is the biggest threat for
the AAP. This is one factor, which could accelerate the process of bringing
down this government before completing its term for full five years. The only
thing common to all the elected representatives is that they are all clean,
without any corruption charges against them. But then, that alone is not enough
for ensuring a good governance. Even Manmohan Singh was clean, and we know what
happened to him and his party. Moreover, all these legislatures are
inexperienced in politics, principled and people with an opinion. Kejriwal is
known to be autocratic in his functioning style and he is bound to ruffle some
feathers among his own party members while taking decisions, small and big. It
will be interesting to see how these legislatures accept the diktats form the
high command without questioning and adjust to the dictatorial work
environment.
Another big worry is that some of the
inner coterie like Somnath Bharti and Rakhi Birla, who have been in controversies
before for their unruly behavior. Would they unintentionally embarrass the
government like before? Would they spread anarchism around again?.
Given these five challenges, it looks
very unlikely that the Kejriwal government would complete its term of five
years. The internal contradictions would bring it down faster than anyone can
expect. This has been a roller coaster ride for the AAP. Now it will stabilize
and continue to be like any other political party.
We all have heard that absolute power corrupts
absolutely … now we are going to witness it in Delhi in coming few months.
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